The geopolitical situation in the
Middle East is heating up again. This time, the smell of a major war was
smelled when Israel seemed to continue to encourage the United States to get
involved militarily against Iran. Israel's move is considered by many observers
as a form of risky and provocative strategy. As the United States begins to
consider the possibility of its involvement, many are concerned that the Middle
East region is standing on the brink of a massive war that could spread into a
global conflict or even World War III.
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Source: Reuters.com |
Old Tensions Re-Boiling
Israel and Iran's relationship is
not a new tension. Since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the two countries have
had no diplomatic relations and have often been involved in indirect conflict,
mainly through their respective support for militant groups in the region such
as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. Israel has accused Iran of being
behind a number of attacks on its territory, both directly and through proxies.
On the other hand, Iran accuses Israel of being an aggressor that destabilizes
the region with the full support of the United States.
Over the years, Israel has
actively lobbied and pressured the United States to take a tough stance against
Iran, especially regarding its nuclear program. Israel's main concern is the
possibility of Iran achieving a nuclear weapons capability that could change
the balance of power in the region. However, Israel's recent actions are
considered by many analysts to be a step too far - not only defensive, but also
offensive in nature with the potential for widespread escalation.
United States: A Strategic
Dilemma
The United States is now at a
crossroads. As Israel's historical ally, domestic pressure and lobbying are
pushing Washington to show firm support for Tel Aviv. Direct American
involvement would open the door to a region-wide war. Not only would US forces
face a powerful Iranian military experienced in asymmetric warfare, but also
risk the involvement of Iranian allies such as Russia, China, North Korea and
Turkey.
Direct American involvement would
open the door to a region-wide war. Not only would US forces face a powerful
Iranian military experienced in asymmetric warfare, but also risk the
involvement of Iranian allies such as Russia, China, North Korea and Turkey.
North Korea and Open Support
North Korea's president, Kim Jong
Un, has publicly expressed his support for Iran. In an official statement, he
even called Israel a "cancer of peace in the Middle East" and warned
that his country would stand behind Iran in the event of a major war. This kind
of support is not just rhetorical. North Korea has been known to have military
and technological ties with Iran, including in the field of missile
development.
Kim's statement is a serious
warning to America and its allies that the war against Iran will not be as easy
as the invasion of other Middle Eastern countries. Iran is not Iraq or
Afghanistan. With a strong network of allies and great geopolitical influence,
an attack on Iran would almost certainly trigger a chain reaction of
international responses.
Russia and China: Observer or
Active Player?
Two other world powers, Russia
and China, will not remain silent either. Russia has great strategic interests
in the Middle East, especially through its alliance with Iran and its presence
in Syria. For Moscow, an attack on Iran could be interpreted as a threat to the
regional stability it is building together. Vladimir Putin, who has been
showcasing Russia's global ambitions, may use this moment to assert his
country's position as a counterweight to Western dominance.
Meanwhile, China, which is more
cautious in its foreign policy, also has close economic and energy ties with
Iran. In a situation of open conflict, Beijing may not be directly involved
militarily, but it could provide logistical, political and even technological
support to Iran. If American pressure is perceived as crossing the line, then
it is not impossible that China will show its fangs more explicitly.
Turkey: An Ambiguous but
Strategic Position
Turkey, as a major military power
in the region and NATO member, is in a unique position. On the one hand, Turkey
has formal relations with the West, but on the other hand, President Erdogan
often shows his sympathy for the Palestinian cause and regularly criticizes
Israel's actions. In the context of an open Israeli-American conflict with
Iran, Turkey's position will be crucial. Will it join the resistance bloc
against Israeli aggression, or maintain neutrality for the sake of national
interests and regional stability?
World on the Brink of War?
With all these factors, the world
is now witnessing the real possibility of a major conflict breaking out. If
global powers are truly drawn in, then what started as a regional conflict
could develop into World War III. The world no longer faces a bi-polar conflict
like the Cold War era, but the complexity of today's geopolitical multipolarity
makes its impact much harder to control.
In addition to conventional
warfare, cyber threats, economic sabotage and the use of advanced weapons
(including the possible use of tactical nukes) are part of the dire scenario.
Global trade would be disrupted, oil prices could spike, and millions of lives
could be at risk due to conflicts that could occur from Tel Aviv to Tehran,
from the Mediterranean to the Korean Peninsula.
Closing: Diplomacy or Ruin
The world needs forward-thinking
leaders who have the courage to take diplomatic steps, even if they are
politically unpopular. Instead of continuing to escalate conflicts, world
leaders need to urgently push for peaceful settlements through multilateral
diplomacy. War may give the illusion of momentary victory, but peace will
always be the foundation for a sustainable future.
America's involvement in the Israel-Iran war is not just a matter of alliance commitment, but a major test of the future of world order. If the decision is taken rashly, then the world may be just one step away from World War III.
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