The Middle East on the Brink of Major Crisis: Time for Global Action

The United States (US) airstrikes on three of Iran's key nuclear facilities—Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow—on June 21, 2025, marked a turning point in the dynamics of conflict in the Middle East. These strikes were not only an aggressive unilateral military action but also ignited a new wave of tensions that could push the region toward a broader, open war.

In direct response, Iran launched a retaliatory attack on a US military base in Qatar on June 24, 2025. This marked a significant escalation, particularly given the involvement of a third country—Qatar—as the site of the attack and the potential destabilization of the Gulf region. Moreover, strikes on several US military facilities in Iraq by Iranian-backed militia groups revealed how quickly the conflict is spilling into other long-volatile areas.

Source: CNN

President Donald Trump's claim that a ceasefire had been reached between Iran and Israel following the strikes appears to lack strong diplomatic backing. The Iranian government has publicly denied any such agreement. This mismatch in narratives indicates that communication channels among the involved nations are ineffective, increasing the likelihood of further escalation.

Furthermore, Iran’s diplomatic outreach to Russia signals a new dimension of the conflict that may draw in global powers. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reportedly flew to Moscow carrying a formal letter from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, explicitly requesting Russian support in confronting the US and Israel. Should Russia decide to become militarily involved—either directly or through weapons support—the conflict would likely shift from a regional war to a full-scale proxy war between global power blocs.

The ramifications of this conflict are far-reaching. First, from an economic perspective, global oil prices have experienced significant volatility since June 21. In a worst-case scenario—should energy supply routes from the Gulf be entirely disrupted—some analysts forecast that prices could surge to US$150 per barrel. However, more realistic projections place the range between US$100–130 per barrel, depending on escalation levels and market responses. Supply uncertainty, investor anxiety, and increased transportation risks have shaken markets. Oil-importing nations, especially in the developing world, could face inflation spikes that may destabilize their domestic socio-economic conditions.

Second, politically, Middle Eastern countries—particularly members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—are under pressure to take sides, which may lead to heightened intra-regional tensions. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, for instance, are in a dilemma: they are long-standing US allies, yet remain vulnerable to potential Iranian retaliation and the broader instability engulfing the Gulf.

Third, from a humanitarian angle, the risk of a new refugee crisis looms large should the conflict spread to densely populated and vulnerable areas. Past experiences in Syria and Yemen show that armed conflicts in this region often trigger mass civilian displacement, both internally and across borders. Europe could once again face large waves of migration akin to the 2015 crisis, which caused major political friction across EU member states.

Meanwhile, Israel has heightened military readiness and expanded operations into Syria and Lebanon to pre-empt possible attacks by Hezbollah. This reinforces the argument that the conflict is no longer limited to an Iran-Israel axis but involves regional non-state actors affiliated with major powers. Hezbollah, Hamas, and Shi’a militias in Iraq are part of a broader resistance network that could ignite a multi-front war across the region.

In this context, the international community must act swiftly to contain the tensions. The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has scheduled an emergency meeting, but its effectiveness depends largely on whether major powers can exercise restraint and push for genuine dialogue. Countries like China, India, Turkey, and Brazil could play mediating roles by offering constructive platforms for negotiations.

It must be emphasized that war is not a sustainable solution to the decades-long tensions in the Middle East. Inclusive dialogue, collective security guarantees, and respect for national sovereignty are key to long-term stability. Failure to implement concrete diplomatic measures would set a dangerous precedent for the post–Cold War international order.

The current Iran–Israel–US crisis also highlights the international community’s failure to establish an effective conflict-prevention mechanism in one of the world’s most sensitive regions. Although multiple peace initiatives have been proposed in the past, none have taken root or gained consensus from all stakeholders. Without an inclusive and trusted system of collective security, this region will remain a hotspot for confrontation.

In addition, the role of media in this conflict must be acknowledged. Disinformation and propaganda have become powerful tools to mobilize public opinion in various countries. Heightened rhetoric on social media and one-sided reporting further undermine trust-building efforts. As such, the international community must also encourage transparent information flows and responsible journalism in covering this unfolding conflict.

From a foreign policy standpoint, Indonesia—as the world’s most populous Muslim-majority country with a consistently neutral stance—can play a more proactive mediating role. Through platforms such as the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), and the G20, Indonesia could promote alternative diplomatic channels that are more flexible and impartial. A humanitarian and peace-oriented approach could serve as the core of Indonesia’s diplomatic leverage amid growing global fragmentation.

In conclusion, the escalation of conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States must not be underestimated. The world stands at a critical crossroads: de-escalation or destruction. Diplomatic resolve, international solidarity, and a firm commitment to peace must take centre stage before this region plunges deeper into a prolonged war—one that would impact not only the Middle East but global stability as a whole. The world must act now, before it is too late.