The Turmoil of the Iran-US War and Its Calculations

After successfully overthrowing President Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela through a measured military operation and then successfully defusing the issue of Greenland's annexation, which was met with resistance from its Western allies, current geopolitics show that the United States (US) is considering the possibility of taking military action in Iran. Iran's domestic political crisis, which killed more than 6,300 Iranian demonstrators (BBC, 31/1/2026), paved the way for the US's planned attack on Iran. There are also other reasons, such as Iran's nuclear program and Iran's anti-Israel stance.

Based on international news reports, US military ships such as the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and other destroyers are on standby around Iranian waters. US soldiers are just waiting for orders from their commander, Donald Trump. Meanwhile, Iran, the target of the threat, has stated through its leaders that it will not stand idly by if attacked by the US. They will retaliate against any attack against them. In fact, Iran is reportedly planning to hold a two-day war exercise (February 1-2, 2026) in the Strait of Hormuz (The Times of Israel, 1/29/2026).

Source: globalfirepower.com

Diplomatically, US President Donald Trump signaled his willingness to open talks with Iran. According to him, Iran would prefer to reach an agreement rather than face US military action (BBC, January 31, 2026). Responding to the US, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghci said that Iran was open to negotiations with the US based on the principles of mutual trust and respect. In fact, Iranian National Security Advisor Ali Larijani flew to Russia specifically to meet with President Putin to discuss international and Middle East issues. He emphasized that Iran's nuclear program is intended for peaceful purposes, not for building nuclear weapons.

Hingga saat ini, tensi ketegangan di sekitar perairan Iran tampak naik turun. Namun, kecenderungannya mulai mereda seiring dengan adanya terobosan antara pihak Iran-AS. Mereka membuka saluran diplomasi. Namun demikian, baik Iran maupun AS masih tetap waspada jika segala kemungkinan terburuk terjadi. Keduanya kini sama-sama menjaga diri. AS dengan segala armada perangnya dilaporkan sudah mendekati Iran. Begitupun Iran yang sudah memasang kuda-kuda jika serangan AS benaran terjadi. Secara hitung-hitungan, berdasarkan data global fire power 2026, kekuatan militer AS dan Iran cukup timpang. Secara peringkat kekuatan militer, AS menempati peringkat pertama dari 145 negara dengan indeks kekuatan 0,0741 alias sempurna. Sementara Iran menempati peringkat 16 dari 145 negara dengan indeks kekuatan militer 0,3199.

The lower the index, the more powerful a country's military is. Looking at this data, it is not surprising that Iran seems to be avoiding military confrontation and choosing diplomacy with the US. Iran has accurately assessed its strength. One of Iran's weaknesses is in the air defense sector. Based on the data, the US has a total of 1,791 fighter jets, ranking first. Meanwhile, Iran has a total of 188 fighter jets, placing it in 15th place. In the naval sector, the US still appears to be superior to Iran. The US has a combat fleet of 465 ships, while Iran has only 109. The US also has 11 aircraft carriers, while Iran has none. The US has 66 submarines, while Iran has only 25. The US has 83 destroyers, while Iran has none. The US has 27 corvettes, while Iran has only 3 corvettes.

This strategic calculation opens the eyes and ears of anyone to how dominant the US is in military terms. It is this superiority in the military sector that often becomes a powerful weapon that effectively raises the US's bargaining position in its relations with other nations on this earth. With its military power, the US can pressure other countries and carry out military political interventions against sovereign states, as it did against Venezuela on January 3, 2026. In fact, with its military dominance, the US can intimidate other nations, as is currently the case with Iran. The Persian country is now surrounded by US military forces.

Faced with such a difficult situation, there are two options. Iran can either remain committed to its anti-American, anti-Israel ideology and continue its nuclear program, or compromise with the US and submit to its demands. For example, Iran's nuclear program, which is aimed at developing nuclear weapons, could be halted, and Iran could make peace with Israel, and so on. Or there could be an unexpected deal and scenario. Which will Iran choose? Only time will tell.