No Clear Victory in the Israel–Iran Conflict

After nearly two weeks of open warfare between Israel and Iran, a ceasefire was officially declared on June 23, 2025. The short yet intense conflict marked the most direct military confrontation between the two regional rivals in decades. The war, which began on June 13 following Iran’s missile and drone attacks on Israel, rapidly escalated into a destructive exchange with severe regional and global implications.

Yet, in the aftermath, both countries publicly claimed victory. Iran portrayed its actions as a bold resistance against aggression, while Israel emphasized its ability to defend its territory and dismantle Iranian military assets. However, a closer examination reveals a more sobering reality: there was no clear winner—only significant losses on both sides.

Source: Reuters

The Human and Economic Cost

In Israel, official data reported 28 fatalities, most of them civilians, and over 3,200 people injured. Iranian missiles hit residential and industrial areas in cities such as Haifa and Beersheba. While Israel’s advanced air defense systems—Iron Dome and David’s Sling—intercepted most incoming threats, they could not prevent widespread panic, mass evacuations, and major damage to infrastructure. Nearly 38,700 claims for property damage have been filed, with economic losses estimated at over US$10 billion.

In Iran, the toll was even greater. According to the Ministry of Health, 610 people were killed and 4,746 injured, while independent groups such as HRANA reported up to 974 deaths. Israeli airstrikes targeted strategic infrastructure, including oil refineries, drone production facilities, and several nuclear-related sites in Isfahan and Natanz. The damage to Iran’s industrial and energy sectors has been described as “severe,” and the national currency, the rial, continues to weaken under renewed US and EU sanctions.

Conflicting Narratives

Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, declared that the war had “exposed the fragility of the Zionist regime,” portraying the attacks as a moral and symbolic victory. In contrast, Israeli officials stressed the operational success of their preemptive and retaliatory strikes, claiming they had significantly impaired Iran’s offensive capabilities.

These narratives, however, appear more intended for domestic audiences than grounded in strategic outcomes. Despite boasting military achievements, both governments face increased internal criticism. Public confidence, already fragile due to economic and social pressures, has been further eroded by the trauma of war.

The Role of the United States

The United States played a central, albeit careful, role throughout the conflict. While initially reiterating its support for Israel’s right to self-defense, Washington quickly moved to contain the escalation through diplomatic backchannels involving Qatar and Oman. This intervention proved crucial in achieving the ceasefire and preventing the conflict from evolving into a larger regional war.

From a geopolitical perspective, the US managed to reaffirm its strategic relevance in the Middle East. It avoided direct military involvement while stabilizing global oil markets and limiting the influence of Russia and China in the crisis. Yet, this limited success must be weighed against ongoing regional skepticism toward American policy, particularly among Arab and Muslim-majority countries.

Civilian Impact and Public Sentiment

Beyond political and military calculations, the war’s most lasting impact may be on the civilians caught in the crossfire. In Israel, thousands of families were displaced, schools and hospitals temporarily closed, and public life disrupted. In Iran, civilian infrastructure suffered, and daily life was further burdened by inflation, fuel shortages, and political unrest.

While no mass protests erupted, small-scale demonstrations occurred in Tehran, Shiraz, and Isfahan, calling on the government to prioritize economic welfare over military ambition. These protests, though limited, reflect a growing weariness among the population toward prolonged regional hostility.

A Cautionary Conclusion

The 12-day war between Israel and Iran provides a stark reminder of the dangers of unchecked escalation and the fragility of peace in a region already burdened with decades of unresolved tensions. While both governments may continue to claim strategic gains, the cost in human lives and economic disruption far outweighs any temporary advantage.

More importantly, this conflict highlights the urgent need for diplomatic engagement, regional dialogue, and crisis-prevention mechanisms. Military deterrence alone cannot ensure long-term stability. Without a shift in priorities—away from confrontation and toward cooperation—similar escalations may recur with even greater consequences.

As with many modern conflicts, the real losers are not political elites or military institutions, but the ordinary citizens whose futures are repeatedly sacrificed in wars they did not choose.